Question

A lender’s portfolio of unsecured retail loans shows a moderate uptick in 30-day delinquencies and a macro overlay indicating deterioration in borrower affordability. No individual exposures are credit-impaired, but overlays suggest a meaningful increase in credit risk since initial recognition. Management proposes staying in Stage 1 with 12-month ECL, citing absence of defaults. What is the most appropriate classification for impairment measurement?

A Stage 1 for all loans—no default observed
B Stage 2 (lifetime ECL) for the affected portfolio segment due to SICR indicators
C Stage 3 for loans >30 days past due
D Stage 3 for the entire portfolio due to overlays
E Remain in Stage 1 but double the PDs to cover overlays
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