Question
A lender’s portfolio of unsecured retail loans shows a
moderate uptick in 30-day delinquencies and a macro overlay indicating deterioration in borrower affordability. No individual exposures are credit-impaired, but overlays suggest a meaningful increase in credit risk since initial recognition. Management proposes staying in Stage 1 with 12-month ECL, citing absence of defaults. What is the most appropriate classification for impairment measurement?Solution
A significant increase in credit risk (SICR) since initial recognition moves exposures to Stage 2 with lifetime ECL even without objective evidence of impairment/default. 30-day delinquency uptick plus macro overlays can justify SICR at a portfolio/segment level.
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