What is the reason behind the rise in yield on the 10-year government bond in 2022?

Solution

Surplus liquidity conditions that prevailed post-Covid-19 in response to the Reserve Bank’s conventional and unconventional monetary measures moderated during FY23 in consonance with the changed monetary policy stance that focused on the withdrawal of accommodation. The Reserve Bank remained nimble and agile in liquidity management by conducting two-way operations. It injected liquidity to assuage transient liquidity tightness through two variable rate repo (VRR) auctions of ₹50,000 crore each of 3 days and overnight maturity on 26th July and 22nd September 2022, respectively. The gradual withdrawal of surplus liquidity pushed the weighted average call rate (WACR) – the operating target of monetary policy – closer to the policy repo rate, on an average basis. After remaining steady through 2020 and 2021, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose in 2022. The weighted average yield spike reflects the domestic bond market volatility stemming from uncertainty in crude prices, a hawkish stance of major central banks, a hardening of global bond yield and the pressure on the rupee. The trading volume in G-Secs (including T-Bills and SDLs) reached a two-year high of ₹27.7 lakh crore during Q2 FY23, registering a YoY growth of 6.3 per cent. The higher trading volume reflects the growing interest of market players/ traders in the government security market. Private Sector Banks emerged as the dominant trading segment in the secondary market during the quarter under review, with a share of 25.0 per cent in “Buy” deals and 24.8 per cent in “Sell” deals in the total outright trading activity, followed by foreign banks, public sector banks, primary dealers and mutual fund.