A SEBI-registered portfolio manager is tracking several macroeconomic variables to predict a potential downturn in the Indian economy. Which of the following is correctly classified as a Leading Indicator?

Leading indicators are predictive, measurable, and proactive metrics that signal future economic, business, or performance trends before they occur. Unlike lagging indicators which confirm past results, leading indicators help forecast turning points in cycles, allowing stakeholders to adjust strategies in advance.    Examples of leading indicator include Stock market performance, consumer confidence index, purchasing managers' index (PMI), and bond yields, new housing starts, manufacturing orders, etc.   Other types of indicators are:

• Coincident Indicators: Change at the same time as the economy (e.g., GDP, Personal Income).
• Lagging Indicators: Change only after the economy has already moved (e.g., Unemployment rate, CPI, Interest rates).