The fallout of focussing on numbers to gauge a

phenomenon as geographically and quantitatively varied as the Indian monsoon is that it has ripple effects of tricking everyone from policymakers to the stock markets that a ‘normal’ monsoon implies all will be well with rainfall distribution. So this year’s floods in Mumbai, Assam and Bihar, and the months-long drought in Karnataka and Vidarbha were all merged under an umbrella number. The Indian monsoon has over the centuries stayed remarkably consistent at around 89 cm during the monsoon months, give or take 10%. The challenge lies in capturing intra-seasonal variation or forecasting a sudden change in global weather (such as typhoons) that can affect rainfall over specific districts. ____________________________. From the given options, choose the one that completes the paragraph in the most appropriate way.

A While more and more farmers are opting for crop insurance and have far greater access via mobile phones to news on weather patterns, what they seek are localised, actionable inputs to guide them on sowing or harvesting decisions.

B Therefore, simply getting these blanket four-month forecasts right doesn’t really help.

C The Indian Meteorological Department is increasingly relying on supercomputers and sophisticated models to warn of weather changes at the district level.

D The Indian Meteorological Department must give momentum to this shift.

E These localised estimates aim to warn of threatening weather and are operationally useful rather than reduce rain to numerical jugglery.

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The fallout of focussing on numbers to gauge a

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