Question

InsureCo writes a portfolio of 12-month fire insurance policies on 1 Oct (policy year Oct–Sep). Premiums are received upfront. Historical claims are seasonal: 30% of claims occur in Nov–Jan, 20% in Feb–Apr, 25% in May–Jul, and 25% in Aug–Oct. Management wants to calculate unearned premium and decide if an unexpired risk reserve (UR

  • R is needed at 31 Mar year-end. Based on seasonality, what is the primary consideration for URR at 31 Mar?
A No URR—unearned premium is sufficient because claims will be covered by future premiums.
B URR is needed if expected claims & expenses for remaining policy period exceed the unearned premium; seasonality concentrated in Nov–Jan is irrelevant at Mar year-end.
C URR likely required because a higher proportion of claims fall after Mar for the remaining policy months.
D URR not required if reinsurance cedes adequately cover seasonality.
E URR must be set to entire unearned premium as a conservative measure.
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